2019

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2019 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.

Reorganizing for Operations along China’s Periphery

China’s overall strategy toward Taiwan continues to incorporate elements of both persuasion and coercion to hinder the development of political attitudes in Taiwan favoring independence. Taiwan lost three additional diplomatic partners in 2018, and some international fora continued to deny the participation of representatives from Taiwan. Although China advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, China has never renounced the use of military force, and continues to develop and deploy advanced military capabilities needed for a potential military campaign.

Military Strategy and Doctrine

Taiwan persistently remains the PLA’s main “strategic direction,” one of the geographic areas the leadership identifies as having strategic importance, in authoritative military publications. Other strategic directions include the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and China’s borders with India and North Korea. PLA reforms have oriented each new theater command toward a specific strategic direction.

China’s Strategy and Capabilities Development in the Taiwan Strait

China appears prepared to defer the use of military force as long as it believes that unification with Taiwan over the long-term remains possible and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits. China argues the credible threat of force is essential to maintain the conditions for political progress and prevent Taiwan from making moves toward independence.

For decades, China has refused to renounce the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue. Simultaneously, China’s leaders proclaim their desire for peaceful unification under the principle of “one country, two systems,” as emphasized in President Xi Jinping’s addresses opening the CCP’s 19th Party Congress.

The circumstances under which the mainland has historically warned it would use force have evolved over time. These circumstances have included:

  • Formal declaration of Taiwan independence
  • Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence
  • Internal unrest in Taiwan
  • Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons
  • Indefinite delays in the resumption of
    cross-Strait dialogue on unification
  • Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal
    affairs and
  • Foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.

Key Takeaways

Key takeaways listed in the report include:

  • The Eastern Theater Command is oriented toward Taiwan and the East China Sea.
  • Relations between China and Taiwan remained cool through 2018.
  • Bowing to Chinese pressure, the Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso, and El Salvador switched diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing.
  • The PLA continued Taiwan Strait contingency preparations.
  • Although China advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, China has never renounced the use of military force; the circumstances under which China has historically warned it would use force remain ambiguous and have evolved over time.
  • China has an array of options for a Taiwan campaign, ranging from an air and maritime blockade to a full-scale amphibious invasion to seize and occupy some or all of Taiwan or its offshore islands.
  • PLA services and support forces continue to improve training and acquire new capabilities for a Taiwan contingency, but there is no indication China is significantly expanding its landing ship force necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
  • Taiwan’s advantages continue to decline as China’s modernization efforts continue.
  • To counter China’s improving capabilities,Taiwan is developing new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare.

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Taiwan in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), 2019

Update, August 13, 2018

On this date, President Trump signed the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 into law (Public Law No: 115-232).

Update, August 3, 2018

On this date, Congress submitted the 2019 NDAA to the President for signature. The following Taiwan-related language was included in the final version of the bill:

SEC. 1257. Strengthening Taiwan’s Force Readiness.
(a) DEFENSE ASSESSMENT. – The Secretary of Defense shall, in consultation with appropriate counterparts of Taiwan, conduct a comprehensive assessment of Taiwan’s military forces, particularly Taiwan’s reserves. The assessment shall provide recommendations to improve the efficiency, effectiveness, readiness, and resilience of Taiwan’s self-defense capability in the following areas:
(1) Personnel management and force development, particularly reserve forces.
(2) Recruitment, training, and military programs.
(3) Command, control, communications and intelligence.
(4) Technology research and development.
(5) Defense article procurement and logistics.
(6) Strategic planning and resource management.

(b) REPORT REQUIRED. –
(1) IN GENERAL. – Not later than 1 year after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report containing each of the following:
(A) A summary of the assessment conducted pursuant to subsection (a).
(B) A list of any recommendations resulting from such assessment.
(C) A plan for the United States, including by using appropriate security cooperation authorities, to–
(i) facilitate any relevant recommendations from such list;
(ii) expand senior military-to-military engagement and joint training by the United States Armed Forces with the military of Taiwan; and
(iii) support United States foreign military sales and other equipment transfers to Taiwan, particularly for developing asymmetric warfare capabilities.
(2) APPROPRIATE SECURITY COOPERATION AUTHORITIES – For purposes of the plan described in paragraph (1)(C), the term “appropriate security cooperation authorities” means–
(A) section 311 of title 10, United States Code (relating to exchange of defense personnel);
(B) section 332 such title (relating to defense institution building); and
(C) other security cooperation authorities under chapter 16 of such title.
(3) APPROPRIATE CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES. – In this subsection, the term “appropriate congressional committees” means–
(A) the congressional defense committees; and
(B) the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate and the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives.

SEC. 1258. Sense of Congress on Taiwan.
It is the sense of Congress that –
(1) the Taiwan Relations Act (22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.) and the “Six Assurances” are both cornerstones of United States relations with Taiwan;

(2) the United States should strengthen defense and security cooperation with Taiwan to support the development of capable, ready, and modern defense forces necessary for Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability;

(3) the United States should strongly support the acquisition by Taiwan of defensive weapons through foreign military sales, direct commercial sales, and industrial cooperation, with a particular emphasis on asymmetric warfare and undersea warfare capabilities, consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act;

(4) the United States should improve the predictability of arms sales to Taiwan by ensuring timely review of and response to requests of Taiwan for defense articles and defense services;

(5) the Secretary of Defense should promote Department of Defense policies concerning exchanges that enhance the security of Taiwan, including—
(A) opportunities for practical training and military exercises with Taiwan; and
(B) exchanges between senior defense officials and general officers of the United States and Taiwan
consistent with the Taiwan Travel Act (Public Law 115-135);

(6) the United States and Taiwan should expand cooperation in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief; and

(7) the Secretary of Defense should consider supporting the visit of a United States hospital ship to Taiwan as part of the annual “Pacific Partnership” mission in order to improve disaster response planning and preparedness as well as to strengthen cooperation between the United States and Taiwan.

Update, July 23, 2018

On this date, the conference report, reconciling the House and Senate versions of the bill, was filed. The conference report was agreed to in the House on July 26, 2018 and in the Senate on August 1, 2018.

The conference report notes:

Strengthening Taiwan’s force readiness (sec. 1257).
The House bill contained a provision (sec. 1253) that would direct the Secretary of Defense to conduct a comprehensive assessment, in consultation with appropriate counterparts of Taiwan, on ways to enhance and reform Taiwan’s military forces, particularly Taiwan’s reserve forces. The provision would also require that the assessment include recommendations to strengthen bilateral cooperation and improve Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities. The provision would require the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to submit a report on the assessment and a list of recommendations and planned actions to the appropriate congressional committees not later than 1 year after the date of the enactment of this Act.

The Senate amendment contained no similar provision

The Senate recedes

Sense of Congress on Taiwan (sec. 1258)
The Senate amendment contained a provision (sec. 1243) that would express the sense of the Senate on the importance of a strong U.S. defense relationship with Taiwan.

The House bill contained no similar provision.

The House recedes with an amendment that would clarify that the provision expresses the sense of the Congress. The amendment would also clarify that the Secretary of Defense should promote Department of Defense policies concerning exchanges that enhance the security of Taiwan, including opportunities for practical training and military exercises with Taiwan.

Senior Defense Engagement with Taiwan
The House bill contained a provision (sec. 1262) that would express the sense of Congress that, pursuant to the Taiwan Travel Act (Public Law 115-135), a service secretary or member of the joint chiefs should visit Taiwan for a senior-level defense engagement.

The Senate amendment contained no similar provision.

The House recedes.

Update, June 18, 2018

On this date, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for 2019 by Yea/Nay Vote of 85 – 10.

Update, April 13, 2018

The NDAA, as H.R.5515, was introduced in the House on April 13, 2018. On May 24, the U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2019.

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