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2019 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.

Reorganizing for Operations along China’s Periphery

China’s overall strategy toward Taiwan continues to incorporate elements of both persuasion and coercion to hinder the development of political attitudes in Taiwan favoring independence. Taiwan lost three additional diplomatic partners in 2018, and some international fora continued to deny the participation of representatives from Taiwan. Although China advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, China has never renounced the use of military force, and continues to develop and deploy advanced military capabilities needed for a potential military campaign.

Military Strategy and Doctrine

Taiwan persistently remains the PLA’s main “strategic direction,” one of the geographic areas the leadership identifies as having strategic importance, in authoritative military publications. Other strategic directions include the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and China’s borders with India and North Korea. PLA reforms have oriented each new theater command toward a specific strategic direction.

China’s Strategy and Capabilities Development in the Taiwan Strait

China appears prepared to defer the use of military force as long as it believes that unification with Taiwan over the long-term remains possible and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits. China argues the credible threat of force is essential to maintain the conditions for political progress and prevent Taiwan from making moves toward independence.

For decades, China has refused to renounce the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue. Simultaneously, China’s leaders proclaim their desire for peaceful unification under the principle of “one country, two systems,” as emphasized in President Xi Jinping’s addresses opening the CCP’s 19th Party Congress.

The circumstances under which the mainland has historically warned it would use force have evolved over time. These circumstances have included:

  • Formal declaration of Taiwan independence
  • Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence
  • Internal unrest in Taiwan
  • Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons
  • Indefinite delays in the resumption of
    cross-Strait dialogue on unification
  • Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal
    affairs and
  • Foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.

Key Takeaways

Key takeaways listed in the report include:

  • The Eastern Theater Command is oriented toward Taiwan and the East China Sea.
  • Relations between China and Taiwan remained cool through 2018.
  • Bowing to Chinese pressure, the Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso, and El Salvador switched diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing.
  • The PLA continued Taiwan Strait contingency preparations.
  • Although China advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, China has never renounced the use of military force; the circumstances under which China has historically warned it would use force remain ambiguous and have evolved over time.
  • China has an array of options for a Taiwan campaign, ranging from an air and maritime blockade to a full-scale amphibious invasion to seize and occupy some or all of Taiwan or its offshore islands.
  • PLA services and support forces continue to improve training and acquire new capabilities for a Taiwan contingency, but there is no indication China is significantly expanding its landing ship force necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
  • Taiwan’s advantages continue to decline as China’s modernization efforts continue.
  • To counter China’s improving capabilities,Taiwan is developing new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare.

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