2017 archive

Taiwan in the National Security Strategy of the United States of America – December 2017

On December 18, 2017, the White House released an updated version of the U.S. National Security Strategy. There was a specific mention of Taiwan, as follows:

We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan in accordance with our “One China” policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan’s legitimate defense needs and deter coercion.

Source: National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 18, 2017

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Taiwan in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), 2018

Update, December 12, 2017

On this date, President Trump signed the 2018 NDAA into law.

Update, November 30, 2017

On this date, Congress submitted the 2018 NDAA to the President for signature. The following Taiwan-related language was included in the final version of the bill:

SEC. 1259. Strengthening the Defense Partnership between the United States and Taiwan.

(a) STATEMENT OF POLICY. — It is the policy of the United States to reinforce its commitments to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act and consistent with the “Six Assurances” as both governments work to improve Taiwan’s self-defense capability.

(b) SENSE OF CONGRESS. —It is the sense of Congress that the United States should—
(1) strengthen and enhance its longstanding partnership and cooperation with Taiwan;
(2) conduct regular transfers of defense articles and defense services necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability, based solely on the needs of Taiwan;
(3) invite the military forces of Taiwan to participate in military exercises, such as the “Red Flag” exercises;
(4) carry out a program of exchanges of senior military officers and senior officials with Taiwan to improve military-to- military relations, as expressed in section 1284 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017 (Public Law 114–328; 130 Stat. 2544);
(5) support expanded exchanges focused on practical training for Taiwan personnel by and with United States military units, including exchanges among services;
(6) conduct bilateral naval exercises, to include pre-sail conferences, in the western Pacific Ocean with the Taiwan navy; and
(7) consider the advisability and feasibility of reestablishing port of call exchanges between the United States navy and the Taiwan navy.

SEC. 1259A. Normalizing the Transfer of Defense Articles and Defense Services to Taiwan

(a) SENSE OF CONGRESS.—It is the sense of Congress that any requests from the Government of Taiwan for defense articles and defense services should receive a case-by-case review by the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of State, that is consistent with the standard processes and procedures in an effort to normalize the arms sales process with Taiwan.

(b) REPORT. —
(1) IN GENERAL.—Not later than 120 days after the date on which the Secretary of Defense receives a Letter of Request from Taiwan with respect to the transfer of a defense article or defense service to Taiwan, the Secretary, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report that includes—
(A) the status of such request;
(B) if the transfer of such article or service would require a certification or report to Congress pursuant to any applicable provision of section 36 of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2776), the status of any Letter of Offer and Acceptance the Secretary of Defense intends to issue with respect to such request; and
(C) an assessment of whether the transfer of such article or service would be consistent with United States obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96–8; 22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.).
(2) ELEMENTS.—Each report required under paragraph (1) shall specify the following:
(A) The date the Secretary of Defense received the Letter of Request.
(B) The value of the sale proposed by such Letter of Request.
(C) A description of the defense article or defense service proposed to be transferred.
(D) The view of the Secretary of Defense with respect to such proposed sale and whether such sale would be consistent with United States defense initiatives with Taiwan.
(3) FORM.—Each report required under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may contain a classified annex.

(c) BRIEFING.—Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, and every 180 days thereafter, the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State, shall provide a briefing to the appropriate congressional committees with respect to the security challenges faced by Taiwan and the military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, including a description of any requests from Taiwan for the transfer of defense articles or defense services and the status, whether signed or unsigned, of any Letters of Offer and Acceptance with respect to such requests.

(d) DEFINITIONS. —In this section:
(1) APPROPRIATE CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES. —The term “appropriate congressional committees” means—
(A) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives; and
(B) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate.
(2) DEFENSE ARTICLE; DEFENSE SERVICE. —The terms “defense article” and “defense service” have the meanings given such terms in section 47 of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2794).
(3) LETTER OF REQUEST; LETTER OF OFFER AND ACCEPTANCE. —The terms “Letter of Request” and “Letter of Offer and Acceptance” have the meanings given such terms for purposes of Chapter 5 of the Security Assistance Management Manual of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, as in effect on the date of the enactment of this Act.

Update, November 9, 2017

On this date, the conference report, reconciling the House and Senate versions of the bill, was filed.
The conference report was agreed to in the House on November 13, 2017 and in the Senate on November 16, 2017.

The conference report notes:

Strengthening the defense partnership between the United States and Taiwan (sec. 1259).
The House bill contained two provisions (secs. 1268 and 1270E) that would, respectively, express a sense of Congress to strengthen the defense of Taiwan and direct the Department to submit a report on the feasibility and advisability of naval port calls with Taiwan. The sense of Congress would encourage the Department to continue the transfer of defense articles and services, expand training and exercises with Taiwan, support practical military personnel training and exchanges between services, encourage Taiwan’s continued investment in asymmetric self-defense capabilities and support humanitarian assistance and disaster relief training.

The Senate amendment contained five similar provisions (secs. 1270, 1270A, 1270B, 1270C, and 1270D) that would respectively: express a sense of Congress encouraging strengthened bilateral relations between the United States and Taiwan through increased regular defense articles and defense services transfers, air defense training capability building, and multilateral exercises; reestablish naval port call exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan at appropriate locations; direct the Department of Defense to enhance the undersea warfare capabilities of Taiwan; direct the Department to invite Taiwan’s military forces to participate in joint military exercises, particularly the annual ‘Red Flag’ aerial combat training military exercise; and direct the Department to submit a report on military exchanges between senior officers and officials of the United States and Taiwan, pursuant to section 1284 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017 (Public Law 114–328).

The House recedes with an amendment that would combine all seven provisions into one. The new provision would make a statement of policy regarding the commitment of the United States to Taiwan and express a Sense of Congress on steps that should be taken to strengthen the defense relationship between the two countries.

Normalizing the transfer of defense articles and defense services to Taiwan (sec. 1259A).
The House bill contained a provision (sec. 1270G) that would require the Secretary of Defense, not later than 120 days after the date on which the Secretary receives a Letter of Request from Taiwan with respect to the transfer of a defense article or defense service to Taiwan, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report with details of the request. The provision would also direct that, not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, and every 180 days thereafter, the Secretary, in coordination with the Secretary of State, shall provide a briefing to the appropriate congressional committees with respect to the security challenges faced by Taiwan and the military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, including a description of any requests from Taiwan for the transfer of defense articles or defense services and the status, whether signed or unsigned, of any Letters of Offer and Acceptance with respect to such requests. The Senate amendment contained no similar provision. The Senate recedes with a technical, clarifying amendment.

Update, September 18, 2017

On this date, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2018 by Yea-Nay Vote of 89 – 8. Sections 1268 and 1270E were not changed from the House version. However, Section 1270G – normalizing the transfer of Defense Articles and Defense Services to Taiwan – is not included in the Senate version.

The bill now awaits reconciliation and final signature.

Update, July 14, 2017

The NDAA, as H.R.2810, was introduced in the House on June 7, 2017. On July 14, the U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2018. Several Taiwan-related initiatives were included.

Section 1268 deals with a sense of Congress on strengthening Taiwan defense:

It is the sense of Congress that—

(1) the Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96–8; 22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.) codified the basis for commercial, cultural, and other relations between the United States and Taiwan, and the Six Assurances are an important aspect in guiding bilateral relations;

(2) Section 3(a) of that Act states that ‘‘the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability’’;

(3) the United States, in accordance with such section, should make available and provide timely review of requests for defense articles and defense services that may be necessary for Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability;

(4) Taiwan should significantly increase its defense budget to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability;

(5) the United States should support expanded exchanges focused on practical training for Taiwan personnel by and with United States military units, including exchanges between services, to empower senior military officers to identify and develop asymmetric and innovative capabilities that strengthen Taiwan’s ability to deter aggression;

(6) the United States should seek opportunities for expanded training and exercises with Taiwan;

(7) the United States should encourage Taiwan’s continued investments in asymmetric self-defense capabilities that are mobile, survivable against threatening forces, and able to take full advantage of Taiwan’s geography; and

(8) the United States should continue to—
(A) support humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercises that increase Taiwan’s resiliency and ability to respond to and recover from natural disasters; and
(B) recognize Taiwan’s already valuable military contributions to such efforts.

Section 1270E deals with a report on Naval Port of Call Exchanges between the United States and Taiwan:

(a) Report Required.–Not later than September 1, 2018, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the appropriate committees of Congress a report on the following:
(1) An assessment of the feasibility and advisability regarding ports of call by the United States Navy at ports on the island of Taiwan.
(2) An assessment of the feasibility and advisability of the United States to receiving ports of call by the Republic of China navy in Hawaii, Guam, and other appropriate locations.

(b) Form.–The report required by subsection (a) shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.

(c) Appropriate Committees of Congress Defined.–In this section, the term “appropriate committees of Congress” means–
(1) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate; and
(2) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives.

Section 1270G deals with a sense of Congress on normalizing the transfer of defense articles and defense services to Taiwan:

(a) Sense of Congress.–It is the sense of Congress that any requests from the Government of Taiwan for defense articles and defense services should receive a case-by-case review by the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of State, that is consistent with the standard processes and procedures in an effort to normalize the arms sales process with Taiwan.

(b) Report.–
(1) In general.–Not later than 120 days after the date on which the Secretary of Defense receives a Letter of Request from Taiwan with respect to the transfer of a defense article or defense service to Taiwan, the Secretary, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report that includes–
(A) the status of such request;
(B) if the transfer of such article or service would require a certification or report to Congress pursuant to any applicable provision of section 36 of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2776), the status of any Letter of Offer and Acceptance the Secretary of Defense intends to issue with respect to such request; and
(C) an assessment of whether the transfer of such article or service would be consistent with United States obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96-8; 22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.).
(2) Elements.–Each report required under paragraph (1) shall specify the following:
(A) The date the Secretary of Defense received the Letter of Request.
(B) The value of the sale proposed by such Letter of Request.
(C) A description of the defense article or defense service proposed to be transferred.
(D) The view of the Secretary of Defense with respect to such proposed sale and whether such sale would be consistent with defense plans.
(3) Form.–Each report required under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may contain a classified annex.

(c) Briefing.–Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, and every 180 days thereafter, the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State, shall provide a briefing to the appropriate congressional committees with respect to the security challenges faced by Taiwan and the military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, including a description of any requests from Taiwan for the transfer of defense articles or defense services and the status, whether signed or unsigned, of any Letters of Offer and Acceptance with respect to such requests.

(d) Definitions.–In this section:
(1) Appropriate congressional committees.–The term “appropriate congressional committees” means–
(A) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives; and
(B) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate.
(2) Defense article; defense service.–The terms “defense article” and “defense service” have the meanings given such terms in section 47 of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2794).
(3) Letter of request; letter of offer and acceptance.–The terms “Letter of Request” and “Letter of Offer and Acceptance” have the meanings given such terms for purposes of Chapter 5 of the Security Assistance Management Manual of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, as in effect on the date of the enactment of this Act.

June 28, 2017

On this date, the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) announced details of the committee’s markup of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2018. During the markup, 277 amendments — offered by both Republican and Democratic members — were considered and adopted. The committee voted unanimously to report the bill.

In a summary document provided following the markup, the SASC stated that the bill:

Reestablishes regular ports of call by the U.S. Navy at Kaohsiung or any other suitable ports in Taiwan and permits U.S. Pacific Command to receive ports of call by Taiwan; directs the Department to implement a program of technical assistance to support Taiwanese efforts to develop indigenous undersea warfare capabilities, including vehicles and sea mines; and expresses the sense of Congress that the United States should strengthen and enhance its long-standing partnership and strategic cooperation with Taiwan.

This post will continue to track the Taiwan-related language in the 2018 NDAA, as circumstances warrant.

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115th Congress: Taiwan Security Act

On November 7, 2017, two Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives introduced the Taiwan Security Act to enhance military cooperation and exchanges between the United States and Taiwan. The legislation echoed a bill introduced in the Senate in July by Republican Senators Tom Cotton and Cory Gardner.

Congressional Record of S.1620 – Taiwan Security Act of 2017
Introduced July 24, 2017 by Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations

Cotton and Gardner Introduce Taiwan Security Act
Press Release by Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)
July 24, 2017

Gardner, Cotton Introduce Taiwan Security Act
Press Release by Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)
July 24, 2017

Congressional Record of H.R.4288 – To enhance the security of Taiwan and bolster its participation in the international community, and for other purposes.
Introduced November 7, 2017 by Congressman Michael T. McCaul (R-TX-10)
Referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs & the Committee on Armed Services

McCaul, Pittenger Introduce Taiwan Bill
Press Release by Congressman Michael McCaul (TX-10)
November 7, 2017

Congressman Pittenger and Chairman McCaul Introduce Taiwan Security Act
Press Release by Congressman Robert Pittenger (NC-09)
November 9, 2017

Taiwan Security Act introduced in U.S. House of Representatives
FocusTaiwan News
November 9, 2017

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October 15-17, 2017 – US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2017

US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2017

US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2017

Event: US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2017

October 15-17, 2017
Princeton, New Jersey

The US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2017 will be held October 15-17, 2017 in Princeton, New Jersey. This will be the sixteenth annual event in a series of ongoing conferences addressing the future of U.S. defense cooperation with Taiwan, the defense procurement process, and Taiwan’s defense and national security needs.

This year, the conference will open with a policy discussion on the Trump Administration’s current and future policies in Northeast Asia from a variety of regional perspectives, and will examine its potential impact on Taiwan defense affairs in the short, medium, and long term. We will then discuss the threat and response options for Taiwan, and how the island could exploit its adversary’s weaknesses in both traditional and emerging domains – covering air, land, and sea, as well as cyber and space. The final two sessions will extrapolate on those responses, and will examine their potential implications on developing business opportunities for the defense and security industries in both Taiwan and the United States.

The first conference in this series was the St. Petersburg, Florida event where former Taiwan Minister of National Defense Tang Yiau-ming gave the keynote address in March of 2002. The second conference in the series was held in February 2003 in San Antonio, Texas, the third in October 2004 in Phoenix, Arizona, the fourth in September 2005 in San Diego, California, the fifth in September 2006 in Denver, Colorado, and the sixth in September 2007 in Annapolis, Maryland. Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Chen Chao-min gave the keynote address at the seventh conference in the series, held in September 2008 on Amelia Island, Florida. The eighth conference was held in September 2009 in Charlottesville, Virginia, the ninth in October 2010 in Cambridge, Maryland, and the tenth in September 2011 in Richmond, Virginia. The eleventh conference was held in September 2012 in Hershey, Pennsylvania, and the twelfth in September 2013 in Annapolis, Maryland. The thirteenth conference in October 2014, the fourteenth in October 2015, and the fifteenth in October 2016 all took place in Williamsburg, Virginia.

Keynote Addresses & Conference Program
Keynote speakers will include senior representatives from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and from the U.S. government.

Conference sessions at the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference feature a moderator and several speakers on the panel, and some sessions may include additional commentators. Each speaker gives a short presentation on the session topic from his or her own viewpoint and expertise. Those presentations are then followed by a moderator-led discussion among the panelists, as well as a moderator-driven question and answer period with the attendees. This format offers the maximum amount of time for exchanges among the panelists, as well as between the panel and the audience, allowing the sessions to become a forum for substantial and valuable interaction and discussion.

Registration is now open at the 2017 US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference website.

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Taiwan Arms Sales Notified to Congress, 1990-2017

Taiwan Arms Sales 1990-2017

Taiwan Arms Sales 1990-2017

Updated Chart: Taiwan Arms Sales Notified to Congress, 1990-2017

Shows clearly notification packaging/bundling and the long freeze.

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The Trump Administration Announces U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

The US-Taiwan Business Council today welcomed the decision by the U.S. Department of State to announce its approval of seven possible Foreign Military Sales to Taiwan, with a total value of US$1.363 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) delivered the required certifications notifying Congress of the proposed Taiwan arms sales on June 29, 2017. A direct commercial sale was also notified, bringing the total to approximately US$1.4 billion.

The published FMS Congressional Notifications (transmittal numbers 16-67, 16-68, 16-69, 16-70, 16-73, 16-74, and 16-75) were for SM-2 Block IIIA All-Up Rounds, associated equipment and technical support (US$125 million); MK 54 Lightweight Torpedo Conversion Kits, spare parts and other support and assistance (US$175 million); MK 48 Mod 6AT Heavyweight Torpedoes, other support, spare parts, training, and assistance (US$250 million); Hardware, software, and other upgrades to the AN/SLQ-32(V)3 Electronic Warfare Systems supporting Taiwan’s KEELUNG Class destroyers (US$80 million); AGM-154C JSOW Air-to-Ground Missiles, spare/repair parts and other support and assistance (US$185.5 million); AGM-88B HARMs and Training HARMs, spare/repair parts, testing, and other support and assistance (US$147.5 million); SRP Operations and Maintenance follow-on sustainment (US$400 million).

The US-Taiwan Business Council welcomes these Congressional notifications in adherence to the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates the U.S. to help enable Taiwan’s self-defense. However, it has been 562 days since the last arms sale to Taiwan in late 2015. The Council questions the impact that delays in consideration and execution of Taiwan arms requests are having on the island’s ability to maintain its self-defense capabilities.

Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers noted that “support for Taiwan remains an essential aspect of the U.S. national security posture in Asia, particularly as increased cross-Strait tensions would fundamentally threaten stability in the region. The U.S. is legally and historically committed to providing Taiwan with arms of sufficient quantity and quality to provide for its own self-defense. Arms sales have long been a mainstay of U.S. security relations with the island, supporting U.S. efforts to deter coercion from the PRC and help provide for Taiwan’s self-determination.

Hammond-Chambers added “The Council supports the return to a normal and regular process for assessing all Taiwan arms sales requests and sales. Packaging several years’ worth of items drives up the overall dollar value of each tranche of notifications. Each Taiwan arms sale also becomes a rare and compelling event, drawing significantly more attention than it might otherwise garner. This creates a more substantial opportunity for Chinese protests and posturing in response to each sale, protests that have had a deterrent effect on U.S. willingness to release needed but advanced systems to Taiwan – such as new-build fighters and submarines. It would be in the U.S. interest to provide less of an impetus for Chinese protests in response to Taiwan arms sales, and moving away from packaging would be a substantial step in the right direction.

The Trump Administration Announces U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

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U.S. Senators Urge President Trump to Support Taiwan’s Self Defense Capabilities

In a June 23, 2017 letter to President Donald Trump, Senators Benjamin Cardin, John Cornyn, James Inhofe, Edward Markey, John McCain, Robert Menendez, Marco Rubio, and Ron Wyden urge President Trump to adopt a policy of regular, robust, and consistent support for Taiwan’s self-defense efforts in the face of ongoing military aggression by China and the growing cross-Strait military imbalance.

The letter enumerated three areas that require attention from the White House. The release of pending Taiwan arms sales programs currently awaiting Congressional notification; ending the practice of bundling Taiwan arms sales, instead establishing a regular and routine process whereby notifications would be sent to Congress when ready; and quickly and robustly addressing Taiwan’s significant and legitimate future requirements for new defense capabilities.

The Senators noted that the U.S. should not allow concerns about China to take precedence over support for Taiwan. They also commented that “China has intensified its economic coercion and military intimidation tactics, thereby stoking cross-Strait tensions and threatening peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. Given these circumstances, our support for Taiwan is more important than ever.”

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President of the US-Taiwan Business Council, said “This letter is a welcome and positive development. The recent cross-Strait dynamics have been increasingly unstable due to coercive Chinese behavior and waning U.S. support. U.S. policy toward Taiwan requires sustained, focused, and determined engagement on Taiwan’s military modernization. The Council is pleased to see the Senate maintain its ongoing leadership on matters impacting U.S. relations with Taiwan, a core U.S. friend and ally in Northeast Asia. Such U.S. support for Taiwan serves to protect peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, which is a core strategic interest of the United States.

A copy of the letter is attached, and can also be downloaded from the Council’s website at www.us-taiwan.org.

U.S. Senators Urge President Trump to Support Taiwan’s Self Defense Capabilities (PDF)

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2017 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual report to Congress on the military power of China.
2017 – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PDF)

One major section is called Force Modernization for a Taiwan Contingency.

 

The PLA continues to develop and deploy military capabilities intended to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary. These improvements pose major challenges to Taiwan’s security, which has historically been rooted in the PLA’s inability to project power across the 100 nm Taiwan Strait, the natural geographic advantages of island defense, Taiwan’s armed forces’ technological superiority, and the possibility of U.S. intervention.

China appears prepared to defer the use of force as long as it believes that unification over the long term remains possible and that the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits. China argues that the credible threat of force is essential to maintain the conditions for political progress and to prevent Taiwan from making moves toward de jure independence. China has refused for decades to renounce the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue, despite simultaneously professing its desire for peaceful unification under the principle of “one country, two systems.”

The circumstances under which the mainland has historically warned that it would use force have evolved over time in response to the island’s declarations of its political status, changes in PLA capabilities, and China’s view of Taiwan’s relations with other countries. These circumstances have included:

  • formal declaration of Taiwan independence;
  • undefined moves toward Taiwan independence;
  • internal unrest on Taiwan;
  • Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons;
  • indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification;
  • foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs; and
  • foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.

Article 8 of China’s March 2005 Anti-Secession Law states that China may use “non-peaceful means” if “secessionist forces … cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China,” if “major incidents entailing Taiwan’s secession” occur, or if “possibilities for peaceful reunification” are exhausted. The ambiguity of these “redlines” preserves China’s flexibility.

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